‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Stock.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of cooking gas are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are turning to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of eateries are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their gas stocks have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 30 crore household consumers and officials say cylinders are being redirected to households as tensions from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the war.

The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by false reports. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the critical issue to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's energy imports may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.