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Entering the world’s most-visited art institution in broad daylight, grabbing eight items of invaluable Napoleonic jewellery and vanishing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, carried out for global fame and ensuing movie adaptations.

Specialists who observe trends in global cultural theft, however, see the recent robbery at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the most recent in a string of quick-hit thefts focused more on the material value of valuable gems or materials than the artifacts’ significance, continuing a trend that has appeared over the last decade in Europe, Britain and the US. The location, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to steal expensive jewellery are entering a globally renowned museum rather than a Cartier store,” said an expert in art recovery. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a Cartier store is better protected.”

A spate of aggressive retail store thefts indicate that many outlets have strengthened their security in the past few years, with security personnel on their premises and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look vulnerable, partly because of the inherent factor of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and also the current economic climate in many developed nations.

“After the pandemic, authorities across the world have reduced spending on police and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it demonstrates how at risk our institutions have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – including necklaces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the tiara of a historical figure containing nearly 2,000 diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once owned by a royal that the thieves dropped by the street on their way out – has inevitably drawn comparisons with the historical theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, carried out by the Italian handyman the thief.

Better points of reference may be the recent burglary of valuables from a German institution worth over €113m, the taking of a £4.75m valuable object from Blenheim Palace the same year, the 2017 robbery of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of thefts of collector items from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to remain intact, experts say, the criminals would struggle to find a buyer. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the licit market”, commented Lynda Albertson of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the cultural authorities has published photos of the pieces. Even a individual buyer or an auction house would want to see paperwork establishing proper ownership before touching such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, institutions were often reluctant to announce publicly about the disappearance of well-known works of art and would stay silent out of embarrassment. These days, as art thefts are more widely publicised, the keeping and selling of taken items is risky business for any criminal.

“If you steal a famous painting, it has to remain intact or it becomes valueless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to conceal it, maybe by moving it among dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “There's ongoing risk to the risk of an partner informing authorities to cash in a ransom.”

For comparable factors, an art detective said it was highly improbable that the robbery had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It's global news and in all the media. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you go to jail. You can't display it to your friends, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Modifying stolen works by dismantling or reshaping does lower the value. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with significant danger because contemporary cutting techniques give gems a bigger and lighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or barter the price down for a concealment.

Importantly, however, dismantling or reshaping eliminates the proof of the theft. “My guess is that the Louvre thieves will try to bring the stolen goods to places with diamond expertise like a country, India or even as close as Antwerp, and find someone to remove the gems,” suggested Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already raised questions about security measures at the museum, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be published next month criticising “significant” and “persistent” delays in modernizing equipment and noting that security cameras were missing in multiple areas. But specialists say displaying precious items in historic buildings with a steady stream of guests comes with risks that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Historic buildings are more difficult to protect,” said Erin Thompson. “They often have nice big street-facing windows that allows for criminals to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid security systems for structures should be conceptualised “like a fortress”, noted Peter Stürmann. “It should include multiple levels to deter intruders.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with advanced external CCTV cameras or integrated vibration sensors that alert about a broken glass in immediately, but historic institutions may be hesitant to uglify their appearance. Detection devices can be difficult to fit to decorated surfaces. Sensors may also have to be disabled during the day as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The schedule of the Louvre raid, which took place between 9.30am and 9.40am local time, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either opening or closing times. It’s often when guards rotate and prior to the museum is crowded who effectively act as extra protection.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new gadgets that can raise the alarm more rapidly and effectively, but it has also provided thieves new methods with which to circumvent security measures. In Paris, the robbers reached the museum’s first-floor window with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a glass pane with a electric tool.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in the country about the 232-year-old building had primarily focused on crowd control in the past decade, and less on protection.

The museum has an in-house team of about 50 permanent firefighters, but their mission is mostly to safeguard the artworks from blazes and flooding. “There is no rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the security of the Louvre all comes down to political will and funding, and currently the nation simply has no money.”