Daily Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The mean count of per-day murders each month in the country has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh government figures. But, security experts have cautioned that homicide numbers might not indicate improved national safety.

Significant Reduction in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This data was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen in these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the least amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly military efforts to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security approach for an seemingly steeper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main components of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety analysts cautioned that relying on murder data to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the increase in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was similarly concerning because it might obscure periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still beset by high violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Recently there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas said.